August 2, 2007 Rains in Eastern Terai Districts

Image 1: Nepal rains on August 2, 2007

About 75 mm rains are expected in the eastern Nepal Terai districts: Mahottari, Dhanusha, Siraha, Saptari, Sarlahi, Udaypur and Morang today, i.e. August 2, 2007. This much of rainfall can hamper relief works. Local grassroots social and service organizations are providing food to the people living in schools.

Only drizzles here and there expected from tomorrow in those areas also.


Image 2: South Asia

The rain in south asia are limited to Mehgalaya, parts of Bihar and UP and west coast of India.

This information is only for Augist 2, 2007 and is not a weekly synopsis.

Image Source: CPC NOAA

Looks like good times are rolling back for Nepal: Rainfall Prediction for South Asia, July 31-August 7, 07

Rainfall over Nepal July 31- Aug 7:For the last three posts, we have been observing progressively receding of rainfalls, especially over Nepal. The recent predictions by CPC NOAA for the period July 31 - August 7, 2007, for South Asia, clearly indicates that the rains that were hovering over the southern half of mid and far-western development region of Nepal, is all limited to drizzles of total 50 to 75mm for a week. So is the case with east and central terai districts where many houses were washed last week.

Image 1: Nepal and South Asia Rainfall

About 75 persons perished and more than 80,000 persons got displaced last week all over the country according to Nepali media reports. Children, men, and women of all ages suffered from water borne disease. Many people are living in schools, open spaces and their relatives' houses. Given such a situation last week, this weeks rainfall predictions are a great relief, this is an window for relief and rehabilitation of the affected people.

There are still pockets of area in East Nepal - around Makalu-Barun National Park in Sankhuwasabha and Solukhumbu districts, as well as Jhapa, Illam, Tehrathum and Panchthar, where good amount of rainfall is going to take place.

South Asia Rainfall Pattern:
As per the interpretation of the CPC NOAA images, Bangladesh is also finding an window of opportunity for recovery from the flooded streets and settlements.
There is very heavy rain falling on the western ghat (hills) of India. The rains in India also have thinned down considerably. The north-eastern indian states of Assam, Meghalaya, and West Bengal have receding rainfall in comparison to yesterday's image.

Image 2: Asia Continent Rainfall Pattern
Most of the monsoon rains are concentrating in the Arabian Sea of west India and the Bay of Bengal. These thick downpour areas are extending east towards Myanmar, Malaysia, Indonesia and all the way to the Pacific ocean.

Thanks to CPC NOAA for their images.

Rainfall over Nepal receding (except in Jhapa): Rainfall Prediction for South Asia for the period of July 30-August 6, 2007

Rain over Nepal for July 30 - August 6, 2007:

Rain over Nepal for July 30 - August 6, 2007:

The rainfall for the period July 30-August 6 over Nepal is shifting towards western part of the country, and is mainly on lower half, that is where most of the rainfall will take place (in Mid and Far-western development region’s lower half portions). Otherwise the amount of rainfall is receding all over the country, and perhaps that will be a window of opportunity for relief and rehab operations. The south-east Jhapa district and parts of Illam will get quite some rains.

Please refer to earlier post (July 30, 2007), same statements apply.

Image 1: Rainfall Prediction for South Asia

Rainfall in South Asia: Bangladesh rains are receding too. The West coast of India is getting more rain again. Max rains are concentrated in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal for the week in South Asia.


Image 2: Rainfall for Asia continent

Thanks to CPC NOAA for the maps.

Rains are receding: NOAA CPC prediction for July 29 - August 5, 2007

Monsoon Highlights:

The rainfall synopsis for Nepal for July 29-August 5: The area under very heavy rains (150mm and more) is very less today (5-8% from 90% last week), and the area under just heavy rains (100 mm or so) is just 35%. Situation seems to be slightly improving; actually little rain in the eastern part of the country across the hills and plains. However, heavy rains are predicted in the far-west part of the country, especially in the plains and hills of Kanchanpur, Kailali, Bardiya, and Banke. Surkhet valley will have high rains as in the past, no less. Although the above terai districts will have heavy rains, the extent or the area of heavy rain is small, and is localized, so the flooding will continue at smaller intensity than the last few days.

Image 1: SOuth Asia Rainfall Prediction


The Terai districts of western and central Nepal - that are Kapilbastu, Rupandehi, Nawalparasi, Chitwan and Makwanpur will get rains above 150mm, same as last week, but, the upper reach of the streams in the area will have less rains. So, there is less chance of having serious and consistent flooding, although it is not possible to completely rule out possibility of flooding and submergence of settlements and infrastructure under flood water.

Eastern Nepal, especially, Jhapa will get regular high rains at its south-east part, but only few damaging incidents are expected there. The area upstream has less percentage area of high rains there.

Image 2: Asia Continent Rainfall Prediction
Bangladesh, India: The north-east part of india continues receiving heavy rains, although the rain concentrations are shifting more towards Madhya Pradesh and western part of UP and Bihar. The extent of rain area is not that widespread as in the last week. The western ghats of India rains are receding. However, the rain effect in Bangladesh continues to remain unchanged, due to continuation of heavy rains in Assam, Meghalaya and North half of Bangladesh, albeit the southern delta area seems to have relieved a bit. Here, the flow and submergence depends on what happens in the catchments of the Ganges and Brahmaputra anyway.

More updates tomorrow!

Thanks to NOAA CPC, who have presented rainfall prediction images for Asia.

Getting seriously into a troubled monsoon 2007 for Nepal: Rainfall Prediction July 26- Aug 2, 2007

Once agaiin the news is that Nepal is getting serious monsoon rains , find below the image updates from NOAA CPC for July 26-Aug 2, 2007.
Thanks to NOAA Climate Prediction Center for their valuable images. The text that follows are interpretations made based on the data.

Rainfall over Nepal: a synopsis

Image 1: Rainfall prediction for South Asia, subset of Image 2 below

Continuing from July 26, 2007 post: There is new image depicting heavier rain (>150mm) spread to about 60% of the land area of Nepal, as compared to only 5% in yesterdays. Many houses are submerged in Bardia and other Terai districts. Expect increase in such reports to more areas in Terai, especially the low lying areas of the Terai. This is getting seriously into a troubled monsoon for Nepal.

Rainfall over Bangladesh & India:

The rainfal volume is increasing in Bangladesh, continuing yesterday's post - more flooded land in Bangladesh.

There is similar pattern over the north,northeast India. The western ghats of India is maximum rains constantly for last couple of days. Expect heavy monsoon choking in several places there.


Image 2: Rainfall prediction for Asia

More Rains expected in Nepal coming week - Rainfall Prediction for South Asia and Asia Continent: July 25 - August 1, 2007

Here are two images showing expected rainfall in South Asia and Asia continent, provided by NOAA Climate Prediction Center
The above image for South Asia is subset of larger image covering entire Asia Continent given below.
One should look at the image and the given map legend to understand the rainfall scenario. In the map, Nepal is covered by top three classes/colors in the bar scale of precipitation. Minimum of 75 to 100 mm rains is there in every part of the country, although the area covered by this category is only in 5% of the area. The rest of 90% of the country is covered by a rainfall category which is in the range of 100 to 150mm. Remaining 5% is covered by a rainfall range of more than 150mm.

All this means, we should anticipate more rains than the last week (July 18-25) rains posted earlier. Districts in east and central east terai were mostly inundated in flood waters last week. What should expect this week? Even more. Expect more districts being soaked in flood waters especially in the Terai of Western, Central and eastern Development regions. The districts that are going to be affected are: Rautahat, Bara, Parsa, Makwanpur, Chitwan, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilbastu and Jhapa. The districts which were flooded last week - Mahottari, Dhanusha, will get even more run-off as their upstream high mountains are getting more rains (especially Dolakha area) and expect more landslides in Central region hills – because landslides in the mountains are directly related to the soil moisture index. Many parts of the hill slope will get above a threshold when rains are above 100mm that causes landslide in Monsoon.



The northern Bangladesh, Assam and Meghalaya (especially north-east India) have very intense rains coming week indicating increase in the water levels in the Delta plains, and expect more news about more area in Bangladesh under water.

Rainfall Prediction for Asia and South Asia for the period of July 18-25, 2007

Here are two maps showing rainfall prediction for the period July 18-25, 2007 presented by Climate Prediction Center, NOAA.




Interpretation:
The maps show that although there will be rains over Nepal, the intensity will be significantly less than other parts in the region such North-central India, Assam, Meghalaya, Bhutan, Bangladesh. Heavy rainfall is limited to Dolkha, Manang, Bajhang (some in Darchula and Humla), and Jhapa. This map shows less pockets of heavy rains than the earlier predictions. However, the predictions remain unaltered for the regions in India's states of Assam, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Uttaranchal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/global/asia/

Heavy Rainfall expected over Nepal and the region: Rainfall Prediction for Asia and South Asia for the period of July 16-23, 2007

Here are two rainfall prediction map presented by NOAA Climate Prediction Center, for Asia and South Asia for the period July 16-23, 2007.

Please note that heavy rains are expected in Nepal, mainly western part and rest of regions of Bhutan, Bangladesh, North India, Myanmar and Thailand, Indonesia, Indian and Pacific Ocean. All that means, we are in the midst of heavy monsoon season and must be prepared to deal with Floods and Landslides expected through out the region.


Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/global/asia/south_asia/

NOAA CPC Rainfall estimates for South Asia, July 2-11, 07

Source: NOAA CPC